<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" ><generator uri="https://jekyllrb.com/" version="3.10.0">Jekyll</generator><link href="https://kyleormsby.github.io/feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" /><link href="https://kyleormsby.github.io/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" /><updated>2026-05-12T21:39:06-07:00</updated><id>https://kyleormsby.github.io/feed.xml</id><title type="html">Kyle Ormsby</title><subtitle>personal description</subtitle><author><name>Kyle Ormsby</name><email>ormsbyk@reed.edu</email></author><entry><title type="html">Aha! A percolating pandemic and a perfect proof</title><link href="https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/11/aha/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Aha! A percolating pandemic and a perfect proof" /><published>2021-11-04T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2021-11-04T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/11/aha</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/11/aha/"><![CDATA[<p>(If you’re not one for preambles, you can <a href="#the-percolating-pandemic-puzzle">skip to the puzzle</a>.)</p>

<p>One of the greatest delights of my undergraduate career was attending Laci (rhymes with <em>Yahtzee!</em>) Babai’s combinatorics lectures. Often drawing affectionate comparisons with Count von Count from Sesame Street, Babai’s booming baritone and childlike enthusiasm have inspired legions of young students.</p>

<p>Coming from the Hungarian school, Babai’s mathematics focused on problem-solving, the untangling of knotty puzzles. Sometimes those puzzles were solved through the diligent application of standard techniques; sometimes linear algebra or another theoretical edifice and big-name theorem could be brought to bear; sometimes a whole kitchen sink of techniques, reductions, and case-work was necessary. But sometimes – just sometimes – there was an “Aha!” proof: a blinding flash of insight that instantly unraveled the knot and left the puzzle exposed and defenseless.</p>

<p>Laci cultivated reverence for the “Aha!” among his students, peppering his lectures with challenges that revealed their mysteries when viewed from that just-right angle, and often pausing to see whose eyes suddenly sparkled. His favorite puzzle involved a checkerboard, a pandemic, and an evil mastermind, and I’m going to lay it out for you here. But don’t worry: I will neither spoil the answer nor keep this gem permananently hidden. I recommend you try your best to divine an elegant, short, and utterly convincing argument. If, come what may, you either want to confirm your answer or simply must have it revealed, I’ve hidden the solution below, and I promise not to judge.</p>

<p>(Full disclosure: I spent a day with this problem and had to get a heavy-handed hint before seeing the solution. Meanwhile, some of my peers sniffed out the answer in under thirty seconds.  Once you see it, you see it.)</p>

<p>(And also a disclaimer: The Aha! is but one beautiful and fun way of mathematizing. These types of arguments are not always available, and not always advisable. Over-cleverness sometimes obscures deeper structure.)</p>

<h1 id="the-percolating-pandemic-puzzle">The Percolating Pandemic Puzzle</h1>

<p>But without further ado, here is Babai’s puzzle: A pandemic has broken out on an $n\times n$ grid (think checkerboard, $n$ squares across and $n$ squares high). At time 0, some of the squares in the grid carry an infection. The infection then spreads according to the following rules:</p>

<ol>
  <li>Once infected, a square remains infected.</li>
  <li>The infection spreads in discrete time steps where a previously uninfected square becomes infected if two or more of its edge-wise neighbors are infected.</li>
</ol>

<p>As an example, here’s the infection spread on a $7\times 7$ board, with black indicating initially infected squares, and lighter shades corresponding to later infection times:</p>

<p align="center">
  <img src="/files/perc_7.gif" alt="Percolating pandemic on a 7x7 board." />
</p>

<p>We now introduce the evil mastermind to the problem. Their goal is to infect the entire grid on a budget, so they want to determine the minimum number of (cleverly positioned) initially infected squares that lead to a fully infected grid. Some brief introspection reveals that $n$ initial infections along the diagonal of the square suffice (here pictured for $n=10$):</p>

<p align="center">
  <img src="/files/perc_10id.gif" alt="Full infection via diagonal seeding." />
</p>

<p>But the evil mastermind is greedy. Is it possible to do the job with fewer initially infected squares? That’s the puzzle!  Stated more formally:</p>
<blockquote>
  <p>What is the minimal number of initially infected squares that can (when positioned in an optimal manner) lead to a full infection? Find this number and give an utterly convincing, very brief argument for why your answer is correct.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Good luck!</p>

<p align="center">
  <img src="/files/perc_13.gif" alt="Percolating pandemic on a 13x13 board." />
</p>

<p>Now, I promised I wouldn’t leave you hanging but also wouldn’t give spoilers. Click on the arrows below to first reveal a hint (modest but substantive) and then reveal the solution. I’ve also included a followup puzzle in case you want to go deeper.</p>

<details>
  <summary>A hint.</summary>
  The more things change, the more they stay the same (or decrease).
</details>
<p><br /></p>
<details>
  <summary>The solution.</summary>
  The evil mastermind can do no better than $n$ initially infected squares. Why? In a word: <i>perimeter</i>. (If this wasn't your answer, perhaps pause here and see if the perimeter solution reveals itself.)

  A short case-wise argument shows that the perimeter of the infected region stays the same or decreases as the infection spreads. When the board is fully infected, the infection perimeter is $4n$. The maximal perimeter of $k$ initially infected squares is $4k$, so to yield full infection we must have $k\ge n$. Initially infecting the diagonal yields a full infection, so $k=n$ suffices. Aha! 
</details>
<p><br /></p>
<details>
  <summary>A followup puzzle.</summary>
  Here's something a little deeper:
  <blockquote>
    What is the total number of configurations of $n$ initially infected squares that lead to full infection? Give an explicit description of the configurations, and find a formula for the total number in terms of $n$.
  </blockquote>

  I won't provide a full solution, but you can click below to reveal the answer and some references.
  <br />
  <br />
  <details>
    <summary>Answer.</summary>
    These configurations correspond to the locations of 1's in permutation matrices for so-called <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separable_permutation">separable permutations</a>. They are enumerated by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6der_number">Schröder numbers</a>: 1, 2, 6, 22, 90, 394, 1806, .... (See also <a href="https://oeis.org/A006318">A006318</a> in the OEIS.)

    You can find details for the argument in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1137/0404025">this article</a> by Shapiro and Stephens.
  </details>
</details>
<p><br />
On a personal note, I was surprised to rediscover this problem when thinking about operads in equivariant homotopy theory for the work in <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.4310/HHA.2021.v23.n1.a6">this paper</a>. Go figure!</p>]]></content><author><name>Kyle Ormsby</name><email>ormsbyk@reed.edu</email></author><category term="math" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[(If you’re not one for preambles, you can skip to the puzzle.)]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Homotopical combinatorics – an introduction for combinatorialists</title><link href="https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/09/homotopical-combinatorics/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Homotopical combinatorics – an introduction for combinatorialists" /><published>2021-09-20T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2021-09-20T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/09/models</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/09/homotopical-combinatorics/"><![CDATA[<p>I’m happy to announce two new preprints, the first with  with <a href="https://people.reed.edu/~aosorno/">Angélica Osorno</a> and our students Usman Hafeez and Peter Marcus, and the second with <a href="http://bifibrant.com/">Scott Balchin</a>, Angélica, and <a href="https://www.kent.ac.uk/smsas/personal/csrr/">Constanze Roitzheim</a>:</p>

<ul>
  <li><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08210"><em>Saturated and linear isometric transfer systems for cyclic groups of order $p^mq^n$</em></a>, arXiv:2109.08210.</li>
  <li><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07803"><em>Model structures on finite total orders</em></a>, arXiv:2109.07803.</li>
</ul>

<p>Both of these build off of recent work Angélica and I did with another group of Reed students, Evan Franchere, Weihang Qin, and Riley Waugh:</p>

<ul>
  <li><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04415"><em>Self-duality of the lattice of transfer systems via weak factorization systems</em></a>, arXiv:2102.04415, <em>Homology, Homotopy and Applications</em>.</li>
</ul>

<p>These papers are about homotopy theory, either focused on transfer systems (related to $N_\infty$-operads in equivariant homotopy theory) or Quillen model structures (presentations of abstract homotopy theories on general categories). But our work is enumerative as well, and forms the basis of an initial foray into <strong><em>homotopical combinatorics</em></strong> – enumerative and structural descriptions of model (and related) structures on finite lattice posets.</p>

<p align="center">
  <img src="/files/venn.png" alt="Homotopical combinatorics Venn diagram" />
</p>

<p>In this post I want to describe our work in a fashion that will be particularly accessible to combinatorialists, stripping away the homotopical motivation (which you can find in the papers) in order to highlight some novel enumeration problems. I hope that some of my readers will be tempted to apply their expertise in this new arena!</p>

<p>Throughout, let’s fix a finite poset $P$ which is a <em>lattice</em>, meaning that it admits finite meets (greatest lower bounds, denoted $\wedge$) and finite joins (least upper bounds, denoted $\vee$). Such structures are ubiquitous in combinatorics, and examples include the finite total orders $[n] = {0 &lt; 1 &lt; \cdots &lt; n}$ and subgroup lattices of finite groups.</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/tamari.png" alt="The Tamari lattice" width="300" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hasse_diagram">Hasse diagram</a> for the Tamari lattice of full parenthesizations of five terms.</em> Image: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamari_lattice">Wikipedia</a>.</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<h1 id="transfer-systems-on-lattices">Transfer systems on lattices</h1>

<p>A <em>transfer system</em> on a lattice $(P,\le)$ is a transitive relation $\to$ on $P$ that</p>

<ul>
  <li>refines $\le$: $p\to q$ implies $p\le q$, and</li>
  <li>is closed under restriction: $p\to q$ and $r\le q$ implies $p\wedge r\to r$.</li>
</ul>

<p>With an additional conjugation condition, these were introduced by equivariant homotopy theorists as relations on a subgroup lattice that encode compatible systems of multiplicative norms. Remarkably, they are in bijective correspondence with weak factorization systems on $P$ (see the <a href="#weak-factorization-systems-on-lattices">next section</a>).</p>

<h2 id="transfer-systems-on-n">Transfer systems on $[n]$</h2>

<p>The transfer systems on $[n]$ were enumerated in <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.03797">this paper</a> by Balchin, David Barnes, and Roitzheim, and they can be constructed recursively. Fix a transfer system $\to$ and let $k\in [n]$ be the smallest integer such that $k\to n$. Note that closure under restriction implies the relation $k\to \ell$ for all $\ell\ge k$. Diagrammatically, we can view the situation as follows:</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/pivot.png" alt="The recursion relation among transfer systems on [n]" width="400" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>The blue region is a transfer system on $[k]$, and the orange a transfer system on $[k+1,n]$. The curved arrows represent $k\to \ell$ for $\ell\ge k$.</em> Image: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.03797">BBR</a>.</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<p>The restrictions of $\to$ to $[k-1]$ and to $[k+1,n]$ are both transfer systems, and given transfer systems on each of these, we can glue them together by taking their union and adding in $k\to \ell$ for $\ell\ge k$. After taking some care with the extremal  cases $k=0,n$, we see that $T_n$, the number of transfer systems on $[n]$, satisfies the Catalan recurrence relation</p>

\[T_{n+1} = \sum_{i=0}^n T_i T_{n-i}\]

<p>with initial conditions $T_0=1$, $T_1=2$. As such, we have</p>

\[T_n = \mathrm{Cat}(n+1) = \frac{1}{n+2}\binom{2(n+1)}{n+1}\]

<p>where $\mathrm{Cat}(n)$ is the $n$-th Catalan number!</p>

<p>If you’re a combinatorialist reading this, then I am willing to wager you already love the Catalan numbers. If not, here are a couple of the things that $\mathrm{Cat}(n)$ enumerates:</p>

<ul>
  <li>balanced strings of $2n$ parentheses,</li>
  <li>complete parenthesizations of $n+1$ factors,</li>
  <li>full binary trees with $n+1$ leaves,</li>
  <li>Dyck paths: east-north lattice paths from $(0,0)$ to $(n,n)$ on $[0,n]^2$ that never cross the diagonal,</li>
  <li>triangulations of a convex $(n+2)$-gon,</li>
  <li>noncrossing partitions of the set ${1,2,\ldots,n}$.</li>
</ul>

<p>Stanley’s famous <a href="http://www-math.mit.edu/~rstan/ec/catalan.pdf">Exercise 6.19</a> from <em>Enumerative Combinatorics</em>, v.2 contains 66 structures enumerated by Catalan numbers, and <a href="http://www-math.mit.edu/~rstan/ec/catadd.pdf">an addendum</a> contains many, many more.</p>

<p>Delightfully, homotopy theorists can now add to the list with transfer systems on $[n-1]$. Moreover, the set $T([n])$ of transfer systems on $[n]$ forms a lattice under refinement which is isomorphic to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tamari_lattice">Tamari lattice</a> (see the Hasse diagram in the first figure), which is the 1-skeleton of the associahedron. (Here’s a <a href="https://www.reed.edu/reed-magazine/articles/2019/associahedron.html">shameless self-link</a> to an article I wrote about the associahedron for Reed Magazine.) Something interesting is afoot.</p>

<h1 id="weak-factorization-systems-on-lattices">Weak factorization systems on lattices</h1>

<p>Surprisingly, transfer systems on lattices are in bijection with weak factorization systems, a type of object that arises in categorical homotopy theory. A <em>weak factorization system</em> on a lattice $(P,\le)$ is an ordered pair of relations $(L,R)$ each refining $\le$ satisfying</p>

<ul>
  <li>factorization: if $p\le q$, then there exists $r$ such that $p~L~r~R~q$, and</li>
  <li>lifting: $L = {}^⧄ R$ and $R = L^⧄$ (notation to be explained shortly).</li>
</ul>

<p>Here lifting is usually conceptualized in terms of commutative diagrams, but we can translate into posets: say that $p\le q$ has the <em>left lifting property</em> (LLP) with repsect to $r\le s$ when $p\le r$ and $q\le s$ implies that $q\le r$; in this situation, we also say that $r\le s$ has the <em>right lifting property</em> (RLP) with respect to $p\le q$.</p>

<p>Since this definition is crucial to all that follows, let’s take the time to unpack it a bit. Fix $p\le q$ and $r\le s$. In case either of $p\le r$, $q\le s$ is <em>false</em>, then we (vacuously) say that $p\le q$ has LLP with respect to $r\le s$. But when we have the “diamond” of relations $p\le q\le s$ and $p\le r\le s$, left lifting of $p\le q$ relative to $r\le s$ says that the diamond “straightens” into a chain: $p\le q\le r\le s$.</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/LLP.png" alt="Lifting property" width="400" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>The substantive case of $p\le q$ having LLP with respect to $r\le s$. The diagram is drawn in “Hasse style” but the indicated inqualities need not be covering (i.e. minimal) relations.</em></td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<p>Now given a relation $M$ refining $\le$ on $P$, we define</p>

\[{}^⧄ M := \{p\le q\mid p\le q\text{ has LLP with respect to all }r~M~s\}\]

<p>and</p>

\[M^⧄ := \{r\le s\mid r\le s\text{ has RLP with respect to all }p~M~q\}.\]

<p>The bijection between transfer systems and weak factorization systems on lattices is quite simple. Notated somewhat glibly, it amounts to</p>

\[\to \longmapsto ({}^⧄\to,\to).\]

<p>In other words, we set $R = {\to}$ and – as we must – $L = {}^⧄R$.</p>

<p>One of the main results of <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.04415"><em>Self-duality of the lattice of transfer systems via weak factorization systems</em></a> is to establish this bijection and use it to show that transfer systems on a self-dual lattice also carry a duality.</p>

<h1 id="premodel-structures-on-lattices">Premodel structures on lattices</h1>

<p>A compatible pair of weak factorization stystems is called a premodel structure. More prescisely, a <em>premodel structure</em> on a lattice $P$ consists of a pair of weak factorization systems \(\{(AC,F),(C,AF)\}\) for which $AF$ refines $F$ (equivalently, $AC$ refines $C$). We call $F$ the <em>fibrations</em>, $C$ the <em>cofibrations</em>, $AF$ the <em>anodyne fibrations</em>, and $AC$ the <em>anodyne cofibrations</em>. <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12937">Reid Barton’s thesis</a> is the go-to reference for premodel structures.</p>

<p>Since weak factorization systems correspond to transfer systems by taking right relations, this is the same data as having a pair of transfer systems, one refining the other. Transfer systems form a lattice under refinement, so in the language of posets, premodel structures on $P$ are the same thing as intervals (pairs $(x,y)$ with $x\le y$) in the lattice of transfer systems on $P$. Symbolically,</p>

\[\mathrm{Pre}(P) \cong \mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{Tr}(P))\]

<p>where $\mathrm{Pre}$ denotes premodel structures, and $\mathrm{Int}$ denotes intervals.</p>

<h2 id="premodel-structures-on-n">Premodel structures on $[n]$</h2>

<p>Since $\mathrm{Tr}([n])$ is the Tamari lattice, we see that $\mathrm{Pre}([n])$ corresponds to intervals in the Tamari lattice. These were enumerated by <a href="https://irma.math.unistra.fr/~chapoton/">Frédéric Chapoton</a> in a <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0602368">2006 paper</a>. Tracking the indices carefully, we see that</p>

\[|\mathrm{Pre}([n])| = \frac{2}{(n+1)(n+2)}\binom{4n+5}{n}.\]

<p>Fascinatingly, these numbers show up in other corners of mathematics. Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1962-002-9">Tutte</a> showed that this is the number of <em>triangulations</em> (rooted planar graphs in which all faces have three vertices, up to continuous deformation) with $n+1$ internal vertices, and <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/0704.3731">Bernardi and Bonichon</a> produce an explicit bijection between Tamari intervals and such triangulations.</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/triangulation.png" alt="A triangulation" width="400" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>A triangulation with 9 internal vertices.</em> Image: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/0704.3731">BB</a>.</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<p>In principle, the Bernardi-Bonichon construction induces a bijection between premodel structures on $[n]$ and triangulations with $n+1$ internal vertices. We have not yet explored whether there is a reasonably explicit or pincipled description of this bijection that makes a conceptual link between these structures.</p>

<h1 id="model-structures-on-lattices">Model structures on lattices</h1>

<p>We’re now ready for <em>model structures</em>. As the name indicates, these are premodel structures satisfying an additional condition:</p>

<ul>
  <li>two-out-of-three: set \(W = AF\circ AC = \{p\le q\mid p~AF~r~AC~q\text{ for some }r\}\); if $p\le r\le q$ and two of $p~W~r$, $r~W~q$, $p~W~q$ hold, then so does the third.</li>
</ul>

<p>The relation $W$ is called <em>weak equivalence</em>, and in homotopy theory it’s the star of the show: the job of a model structure is to give a nice way to turn the relations of $W$ into isomorphisms. In the case of model structures on lattices, the relation $W$ is automatically <em>saturated</em>:</p>

<ul>
  <li>saturation (aka decomposition): if $p~W~q$ and $p\le r\le q$, then $p~W~r$ and $r~W~q$.</li>
</ul>

<p>Given a model structure on a lattice $(P,\le)$, we may form the associated <em>homotopy lattice</em> $\mathrm{Ho}(P)$ which is the quotient of $P$ by the equivalence relation generated by $W$, endowed with the partial order induced by $\le$. Later, we will see that it can be interesting to enumerate model structures on $P$ with a particular homotopy lattice.</p>

<p>It turns out that there is a bijection between weak factorization systems and <em>contractible</em> model structures: those with $W = {\le}$ (or, equivalently, $\mathrm{Ho}(P)$ a singleton). The recipe is as follows: given a weak factorization system $(L,R)$, set $({AC}, F) = (C,{AF}) = (L,R)$. Note that $W = {AF}\circ {AC} = L\circ R = {\le}$ by the factorization property of $(L,R)$. This gives us a triple of bijections:</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/bijections.png" alt="Bijections" width="600" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>Bijections between transfer systems, weak factorization systems, and contractible model structures on $P$.</em> Image: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07803">BOOR</a>.</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<h2 id="model-structures-on-n">Model structures on $[n]$</h2>

<p>When $P=[n]$, a straightforward but somewhat involved argument implies that a model structure on $[n]$ is specified by (and specifies) choices of contractible model structures on each connected component. (This is very special to $[n]$ and does not hold for other lattices!) Thus the following recipe uniquely identifies each model structure on $[n]$:</p>

<ol>
  <li>
    <p>Choose a partition of $[n]$ into intervals,</p>

\[[n] = [0,a_1]\amalg [a_1+1,a_2]\amalg \cdots \amalg [a_k+1,n].\]
  </li>
  <li>
    <p>On each interval in the partition, choose a transfer system.</p>
  </li>
</ol>

<p>The interval $[a_j+1,a_{j+1}]$ is isomorphic to $[a_{j+1}-a_j-1]$ and thus there are $\mathrm{Cat}(a_{j+1}-a_j)$ transfer systems on it. (This works for the initial and final interval as well if we set $a_{-1}=-1$ and $a_{k+1} = n$.) Noting that an interval partition of $[n]$ (with $k+1$ blocks) is equivalent to an ordered partition (<em>i.e.</em>, composition) of the integer $n+1$, we see that there are</p>

\[\sum_{k=0}^n ~ \sum_{i_1+\cdots+i_{k+1}=n+1} ~ \prod_{j=1}^{k+1} \mathrm{Cat}(i_j)\]

<p>model structures on $[n]$. Classical results of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-365X(76)90009-1">Shapiro</a> imply that this number is the binomial coefficient</p>

\[\binom{2n+1}{n}.\]

<p>In fact, we give a new direct proof of this identity via lattice paths that the reader might deduce from this diagram:</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/fig5.png" alt="Lattice path decomposed into Dyck paths" width="600" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>An example of our bijective proof that equation (9) evaluates to (10)</em>. Image: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07803">BOOR</a>.</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<p>The above recipe also allows us to enumerate model structures on $[n]$ with a specified homotopy category. Indeed, $\mathrm{Ho}([n])\cong [k]$ for $0\le k\le n$ precisely when there are $k+1$ blocks in the associated interval partition. As such (again by a theorem of Shapiro), there are</p>

\[\sum_{i_1+\cdots+i_{k+1}=n+1} ~ \mathrm{Cat}(i_j) = \frac{2(k+1)}{n+k+2}\binom{2n+1}{n-k}\]

<p>model structures on $[n]$ with $k+1$ connected components.</p>

<p>We can arrange these counts into <em>Shapiro’s Catalan triangle</em> (<a href="https://oeis.org/A039598">OEIS A039598</a>), which has the Catalan numbers as its first column (corresponding to contractible model structures) and row sums giving the total number model structures on $[n]$.</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th style="text-align: center"><img src="/files/shapiro.png" alt="Refined statistics on model structures on [n]" width="600" /></th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style="text-align: center"><em>This table gives the number of model structures on $[n]$ with homotopy category isomorphic to $[k]$. The rightmost column gives the total number of model structures on $[n]$.</em> Image: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07803">BOOR</a>.</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<h2 id="model-structures-on-lattices-with-f--le">Model structures on lattices with $F = {\le}$</h2>

<p>The paper <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.08210"><em>Saturated and linear isometric transfer systems for cyclic groups of order $p^mq^n$</em></a> focuses on so-called <em>saturated</em> transfer systems, where the relation satisfies the saturation condition. The interested reader can check that these are in bijection with model structures on $P$ for which $ F = {\le}$. Via techniques that probably deserve their own blog post, we show that the rectangular lattice $[m]\times [n]$ has precisely</p>

\[s(m,n)=\sum_{j=2}^{m+2}(-1)^{m-j}  \begin{Bmatrix}{m+1}\\{j-1}\end{Bmatrix}\frac{j!}{2}j^n\]

<p>such model structures, where \(\begin{Bmatrix}r\\ s\end{Bmatrix}\) is the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_numbers_of_the_second_kind">Stirling number of the second kind</a> enumerating $s$-block partitions of a set with cardinality $r$. Moreover, the exponential generating function for $s(m,n)$ takes the form</p>

\[\sum_{m,n\ge 0}\frac{s(m,n)}{m!n!}x^my^n = \frac{e^{2x+2y}}{(e^x+e^y-e^{x+y})^3}.\]

<h1 id="a-general-strategy">A general strategy</h1>

<p>Given a lattice $P$, you can attempt the following steps to determine model structures on $P$:</p>

<ol>
  <li>Determine the structure of the lattice of transfer systems $\mathrm{Tr}(P)$ (equivalently, weak facotrizaiton systems) in $P$.</li>
  <li>Enumerate the premodel structures on $P$ by determining the interval lattice of $\mathrm{Tr}(P)$.</li>
  <li>Figure out which intervals on $\mathrm{Tr}(P)$ correspond to model structures.</li>
</ol>

<p>A word of warning: very few premodel structures are model structures! In the case of $P=[n]$, the quotient of # premodel structures on $[n]$ over # model structures on $[n]$ grows like</p>

\[c2^{dn}n^2\]

<p>as $n\to \infty$ where $c = \frac{243\sqrt{3/2}}{1024} \approx 0.291$ and $d = 3\log_2(3)-6 \approx -1.245$. This is nearly exponential decay, and the quotient approaches $0$ very quickly.</p>

<h1 id="und-jetzt">Und jetzt</h1>

<p>We cover several additional topics in the papers (including analyses of duality on and Bousfield localization of model structures on $[n]$), but there is still much to explore. The final section of <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07803"><em>Model structures on finite total orders</em></a> provides a list of open problems. I hope you’ll think about them and share your progress and questions!</p>]]></content><author><name>Kyle Ormsby</name><email>ormsbyk@reed.edu</email></author><category term="math" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I’m happy to announce two new preprints, the first with with Angélica Osorno and our students Usman Hafeez and Peter Marcus, and the second with Scott Balchin, Angélica, and Constanze Roitzheim:]]></summary></entry><entry><title type="html">Farewell, bright obvious</title><link href="https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/06/farewell-bright-obvious/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="Farewell, bright obvious" /><published>2021-06-22T00:00:00-07:00</published><updated>2021-06-22T00:00:00-07:00</updated><id>https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/06/the-bright-obvious</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://kyleormsby.github.io/posts/2021/06/farewell-bright-obvious/"><![CDATA[<p>I recently ported my academic website to <a href="https://pages.github.com/">github.io</a> and upgraded it to run on <a href="https://jekyllrb.com/">Jekyll</a> and the <a href="https://github.com/academicpages/academicpages.github.io">Academic Pages</a> template. That means I can now host my blog here, so I’ll no longer be (erratically and irregularly) adding to my Wordpress blog, <a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/">The Bright Obvious</a>.</p>

<p>The title of my new blog is $\frac{\text{mind}}{\text{matter}}$, a nod to notational puns and my desire to continue writing about academic and physical activities – the Life of the Embodied Mind.  Below, I’ve created an index of my old Bright Obvious posts, reverse chronologically organized according to this duality.</p>

<h2 id="mind">mind</h2>
<ul>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2017/06/03/when-something-is-nothing/">When something is nothing</a>. Informal report on my paper <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04744">Vanishing is stable motivic homotopy sheaves</a>.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2016/02/08/comparing-g-sets-and-quadratic-forms/">Comparing $G$-sets and quadratic forms</a>. Informal report on my student Ricardo Rojas-Echenique’s paper <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01010">Injectivity and surjectivity of the Dress map</a>.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2015/11/02/the-homogeneous-spectrum-of-milnor-witt-k-theory/">The homogeneous spectrum of Milnor-Witt $K$-theory</a>. Informal report on my student Riley Thornton’s <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.08499">paper</a> by the same name.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/01/21/generalizing-the-fundamental-theorem-of-galois-theory/">Generalizing the fundamental theorem of Galois theory</a>. Informal report on my paper <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.4728">Galois equivariance and stable motivic homotopy theory</a>.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2013/05/25/until-the-bright-obvious-stands-motionless-in-cold/">Until the bright obvious stands motionless in cold</a>. My first blog post, explaining how Wallace Stevens inspired the title of my old blog.</li>
</ul>

<h2 id="matter">matter</h2>
<ul>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2016/09/23/a-journey-is-an-hallucination/">A journey is an hallucination</a>. Race report from the 2016 IMTUF 100.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2016/05/14/the-best-burrito-in-oregon/">The best burrito in Oregon</a>. Race report from the 2016 Smith Rock Ascent 50k.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2016/01/24/intro-to-mountain-trail-running/">Intro to mountain trail running</a>. Slides from my Reed <a href="https://www.reed.edu/paideia/">Paideia</a> course.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/fall-race-report-3-x-50k-in-the-nw-mountain-trail-series/">Fall race report: 3 $\times$ 50k in the NW Mountain Trail Series</a>. Includes pics from Chamonix as well!</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2015/08/22/teton-crested/">Teton Crested</a>. Trip report from my 40-mile run with David Ayala along the Teton Crest Trail.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/race-recap-fall-2014/">Race recap fall 2014</a>. Wherein I learn how to run downhill.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/moon-goddess-arete/">Moon Goddess Arete</a>. Pictures from the stupidest thing I ever did.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/05/04/running-routes-berkeley-edition/">Running routes – Berkeley edition</a>. Where to run if you’re in Berkeley and you like trails.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/04/27/the-tam-tramp/">The Tam Tramp</a>. Trip report from my 50-mile long 30th birthday party.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/joshua-alabama-pinecreek/">Joshua Alabama Pinecreek</a>. Trip report from a spring break road trip through the Eastern Sierras.</li>
  <li><a href="https://thebrightobvious.wordpress.com/2014/01/20/presi-traverse/">Presi traverse</a>. My first “serious” trail run across the Presidential Range in New Hampshire’s White Mountains.</li>
</ul>]]></content><author><name>Kyle Ormsby</name><email>ormsbyk@reed.edu</email></author><category term="math" /><category term="running" /><category term="trails" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[I recently ported my academic website to github.io and upgraded it to run on Jekyll and the Academic Pages template. That means I can now host my blog here, so I’ll no longer be (erratically and irregularly) adding to my Wordpress blog, The Bright Obvious.]]></summary></entry></feed>